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Dufrénot

Publications

Testing the finance-growth link: is there a difference between developed and developing countries?Journal articleGilles Dufrénot, Valérie Mignon and Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Economics Bulletin, Volume 30, Issue 3, pp. 1794-1807, 2010

We revisit the evidence of the existence of a long-run link between financial intermediation and economic growth, by testing of cointegration between the growth rate of real GDP, control variables and three series reflecting financial intermediation. We consider a model with a factor structure that allows us to determine whether the finance-growth link is due to cross countries dependence and/or whether it characterises countries with strong heterogeneities. We employ techniques recently proposed in the panel data literature, such as PANIC analysis and cointegration in common factor models. Our results show differences between the developed and developing countries. We run a comparative regression analysis on the 1980-2006 period and find that financial intermediation is a positive determinant of growth in developed countries, while it acts negatively on the economic growth of developing countries.
Is Per Capita Growth in Africa Hampered by Poor Governance and Weak Institutions? An Empirical Study on the ECOWAS CountriesJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Abdoulaye Diop and Gilles Sanon, African Development Review, Volume 22, Issue 2, pp. 265-275, 2010

No abstract is available for this item.
The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approachJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Valérie Mignon and Charalambos Tsangarides, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Volume 146, Issue 4, pp. 731-761, 2010

This paper applies quantile regression techniques to investigate how the impact of trade openness on the growth rate of per capita income varies with the conditional distribution of growth. Using formal robustness analyses, we first identify robust variables affecting economic growth (investment, government balance, terms of trade, inflation, and population growth) which we then use as controls in the quantile regression estimations. Our findings suggest a heterogeneous trade-growth nexus: for both the long-run and the short-run, the effect of openness on growth is higher in countries with low growth rates compared to those of high growth rates. Our results cast doubt on earlier literature that finds little effect of openness on growth, and suggest that the implications of parameter heterogeneity in the openness-growth relationship need to be considered before prescribing policies.
New challenges for public debt in advanced economies Summary of the conference held in Strasbourg on 16-17 September 2010Journal articleGilles Dufrénot, Carine Bouthevillain, Philippe Frouté and L. Pau, Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Issue 20, pp. 95-107, 2010

On 16-17 September 2010, the Banque de France's Directorate General Economics and International Relations and the Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée (BETA) of Strasbourg University jointly hosted a conference on the topic "New challenges for public debt in advanced economies" that brought together 70 economists from French and foreign universities, ESCB and other central banks, and European and international institutions.
Nouveaux défis pour la dette publique dans les pays avancés : synthèse du colloque tenu à Strasbourg les 16 et 17 septembre 2010Journal articleGilles Dufrénot, Carine Bouthevillain, Philippe Frouté and Laurent Paul, Bulletin de la Banque de France, Issue 182, pp. 87-94, 2010

Les 16 et 17 septembre 2010, la Direction générale des études et des Relations internationales a organisé en collaboration avec le Bureau d'économie théorique appliquée (BETA) de l'université de Strasbourg une conférence réunissant 70 économistes issus du monde académique franà§ais et étranger, de banques centrales du SEBC ou d'ailleurs et d'institutions européennes et internationales sur le thème "Nouveaux défis posés par la dette publique dans les pays développés".
Asymmetric Terms-of-Trade Shocks in a Monetary Union: An Application to West AfricaJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Benjamin Carton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Loïc Batté, Journal of African Economies, Volume 19, Issue 5, pp. 657-690, 2010

We propose a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a monetary union facing asymmetric terms-of-trade shocks, calibrated on Nigeria and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant money supply, a flexible exchange rate with an accommodating monetary policy and a fixed exchange-rate regime. We find that, in the face of oil-price shocks, the most stabilising regime for Nigeria is a fixed money supply, whereas it is a fixed exchange rate for WAEMU. However, the introduction of an oil-stabilisation fund can reduce the disagreement on the common policy rule. Furthermore, the two zones may agree on a fixed money-supply rule in the face of both oil- and agricultural-price shocks. Copyright 2010 The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
Après la crise ? Les politiques économiques dans le mondeBookGilles Dufrénot and Alain Sand-Zantman, Economie, 2009-11, 208 pages, Economica, 2009

La crise actuelle, qui s'est révélée en 2008, frappe partout. Elle touche les pays riches, émergents et pauvres. Elle est multidimensionnelle en affectant non seulement les systèmes financiers, mais aussi les entreprises et les ménages. Est-ce la crise de trop ? Ce livre emmène le lecteur à travers les continents : l'Europe, l'Amérique, l'Asie, l'Afrique. Dressant un tableau sans concession sur les manifestations de la crise et ses conséquences, les auteurs commentent les stratégies retenues par les décideurs politiques pour en sortir et passent au crible les débats suscités à cette occasion.
Le comportement du taux de change allemand : mémoire longue ou dynamique non linéaire ?Book chapterGilles Dufrénot, Sandrine Lardic, Laurent Mathieu, Valérie Mignon and Anne Péguin-Feissolle, In: Ouvrage en l'hommage à Gilbert Abraham-Frois, C. Bidard (Eds.), 2009, pp. -, Economica, 2009
Credit Policy Stress In The West African Economic And Monetary UnionJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, The Developing Economies, Volume 47, Issue 4, pp. 410-435, 2009

No abstract is available for this item.
A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European CountriesJournal articleGilles Dufrénot and Irène Andreou, Journal of Economic Integration, Volume 24, pp. 87-115, 2009

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one. These indicators could help to achieve a guideline, strengthening the domestic capacities to face economic integration and financial stresses.