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Augier

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The impact of rules of origin on trade flowsJournal articlePatricia Augier, Michael Gasiorek and Charles Lai-Tong, Economic Policy, Volume 20, Issue 43, pp. 567-624, 2005

"A great deal of post-war trade liberalization resulted from regional, preferential trade agreements. Preferential trade agreements cut tariffs on goods originating only in those nations that have signed the agreement. Therefore, they need 'rules of origin' to determine which goods benefit from the tariff cut. Rules of origin have long been ignored for two good reasons: they are dauntingly complex and at first sight appear mind-numbingly dull. The third standard reason for ignoring them - the assertion that they do not matter much - turns out to be wrong. We show that rules of origin are important barriers to trade. Moreover, such rules are emerging as an important trade issue for three additional reasons. First, preferential trade deals are proliferating worldwide. Second, the global fragmentation of production implies complex international supply chains which are particularly constrained and distorted by rules of origin. Third, the extent to which regionalism challenges the WTO-based trading system depends in part on incompatibilities and rigidities built into rules of origin." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2005.
Rules of Origin and the EU-Med Partnership: The Case of TextilesJournal articlePatricia Augier, Michael Gasiorek and Charles Lai-Tong, The World Economy, Volume 27, Issue 9, pp. 1449-1473, 2004

This paper analyses the impact of rules of origin on patterns of trade in the context of the pan-European system of diagonal cumulation. The paper first highlights the importance of rules of origin in all preferential trading arrangements while arguing that those rules can easily lead to trade suppression and/or trade diversion. We then focus on the introduction of the pan-European system in 1997 and show evidence to suggest that the introduction of the system materially impacted on trade between the EU, and its CEFTA, EFTA and Baltic states partner countries. The main body of the paper then empirically explores the impact of the lack of cumulation in the textile industry on the countries of the Southern Mediterranean. The results suggest that rules of origin may indeed substantially constrain trade between non-cumulating countries, possibly by as much as 70-80 per cent in aggregate. While preferential trading agreements thus serve to increase intra-PTA trade through the liberalisation of trade barriers, they may also be doing so by effectively raising external barriers to trade through the use of constraining rules of origin. To the extent that they do so increases the likelihood of trade diversion and trade suppresion. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
The welfare implications of trade liberalization between the Southern Mediterranean and the EUJournal articlePatricia Augier and Michael Gasiorek, Applied Economics, Volume 35, Issue 10, pp. 1171-1190, 2003

The impact on the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMC) of the current process of trade liberalization with the European Union is explored. The methodology is that of computable general equilibrium modelling under imperfect competition and the model includes ten countries and 11 sectors. This allows for both a cross-country and cross-sectoral analysis of the results. The experiments considered are the full liberalization of tariffs, as well as changes in market access and trade-induced changes in productivity. A key feature of the paper is that the phased introduction of tariff reductions is allowed for as explicitly envisaged in the Agreements. The results show that the process of liberalization may have a substantial, though non-monotonic, impact on the SMC economies in terms of both changes in production and through this on welfare. The welfare impact is potentially very high in particular for the high tariff economies. The sources of the welfare gain tend to derive from perfectly competitive explanations of trade for the high tariff economies, and from imperfectly competitive explanations of trade for the low tariff economies.
Macro-économie européenne - MacSim, un logiciel de simulation (livre + CD)BookPatricia Augier, Jean-Louis Brillet, Gilbert Cette and Raymond Gambini, Économie, 2001, 168 pages, L.G.D.J, 2001
Macroeconomie europeenne et coordination : le logiciel de Macro-Simulation MacSimJournal articlePatricia Augier, Jean-Louis Brillet, Gilbert Cette and Raymond Gambini, Economie Internationale, Issue 85, pp. 147-155, 2001

MacSim est un logiciel de macroéconomie qui place les étudiants en situation de "décideurs Publics" devant prendre des décisions de politiques économiques afin d'améliorer la situation économique d'un pays européen ou de l'ensemble de l'Europe. Les pays peuvent passer des accords monétaires, et par exemple décider de former ou de sortir d'une Union Monétaire symétrique (type UEM) ou asymétrique (type SME). Plusieurs options sont possibles concernant la détermination des taux d'intérêt et des taux de change. Les pays européens peuvent de plus être soumis à des chocs externes de demande, ou de prix. Enfin, les stratégies peuvent être plus ou moins coopératives.