Publications
This paper studies the dynamics of information diffusion within networks, encompassing both general and targeted dissemination. We first characterize the theoretical foundations of diffusion centrality. Next, we introduce two extensions of diffusion centrality: targeting centrality and reachability, that we believe to better capture situations involving targeted requests. We derive general explicit formulas for the computation of these novel centrality measures.
This paper considers a risk-neutral insurer and a risk-averse individual who bargain over the terms of an insurance contract. Under asymmetric Nash bargaining, we show that the Pareto-optimal insurance contract always contains a straight deductible under linear transaction costs and that the deductible disappears if and only if the deadweight cost is zero, regardless of the insurer's bargaining power. We further find that the optimality of no insurance is consistent across all market structures. When the insured's risk preference exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion, the optimal deductible and the insurer's expected loss decrease in the degree of the insured's risk aversion and thus increase in the insured's initial wealth. In addition, the effect of increasing the insurer's bargaining power on the optimal deductible is equivalent to a pure effect of reducing the initial wealth of the insured. Our results suggest that the well-documented preference for low deductibles could be the result of insurance bargaining.
What patterns of economic relations arise when people are altruistic rather than strategically self-interested? What are the welfare implications of altruistically-motivated choices of business partners? This paper introduces an altruism network into a simple model of choice among partners for economic activity. With concave utility, agents effectively become inequality averse towards their friends and family. Rich agents preferentially choose to work with poor friends despite productivity losses. These preferential contracts can also align with welfare since the poor benefit the most from income gains and these gains can outweigh the loss in output. Hence, network inequality—the divergence in incomes within sets of friends and family—is key to how altruism shapes economic activity, output, and welfare. When skill homophily —the tendency for friends to have the skills needed for high production—is high, preferential contracts and productivity losses disappear since rich agents have poor friends with the requisite qualifications.
We study how altruism networks affect the demand for formal insurance. Agents with CARA utilities are connected through a network of altruistic relationships. Incomes are subject to a common shock and to a large individual shock, generating heterogeneous damages. Agents can buy formal insurance to cover the common shock, up to a coverage cap. We find that ex-post altruistic transfers induce interdependence in ex-ante formal insurance decisions. We characterize the Nash equilibria of the insurance game and show that agents act as if they are trying to maximize the expected utility of a representative agent with average damages. Altruism thus tends to increase demand of low-damage agents and to decrease demand of high-damage agents. Its aggregate impact depends on the interplay between demand homogenization, the zero lower bound and the coverage cap. We find that aggregate demand is higher with altruism than without altruism at low prices and lower at high prices. Nash equilibria are constrained Pareto efficient.
The aim of this study (EPIDIAB) was to assess the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and the micro and macrovascular complications (MVC) of type 2 diabetes (T2D).
This paper assesses whether and how setting up a sovereign wealth fund has a buffer effect against currency crises. Using an innovative dynamic logit panel model framework and a unique dataset covering 34 emerging countries over the period 1989–2019, we empirically show that sovereign wealth funds reduce the occurrence of currency crises. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, alternative definitions of sovereign wealth funds, controlling for currency crisis risk factors, and income level sampling. Our findings have important implications for financial stability and for policymakers, who could further exploit the potential of sovereign wealth funds to better manage foreign exchange risks.
Traditional mid-term electricity forecasting models rely on calendar and meteorological information such as temperature and wind speed to achieve high performance. However depending on such variables has drawbacks, as they may not be informative enough during extreme weather. While ubiquitous, textual sources of information are hardly included in prediction algorithms for time series, despite the relevant information they may contain. In this work, we propose to leverage openly accessible weather reports for electricity demand and meteorological time series prediction problems. Our experiments on French and British load data show that the considered textual sources allow to improve overall accuracy of the reference model, particularly during extreme weather events such as storms or abnormal temperatures. Additionally, we apply our approach to the problem of imputation of missing values in meteorological time series, and we show that our text-based approach beats standard methods. Furthermore, the influence of words on the time series' predictions can be interpreted for the considered encoding schemes of the text, leading to a greater confidence in our results.
Objectives
We propose a general framework for estimating long-term health and economic effects that takes into account four time-related aspects. We apply it to a reduction in exposure to air pollution in the Canton of Geneva.
Study design
Methodological developments on the evaluation of long-term economic and health benefits, with an empirical illustration.
Methods
We propose a unified framework—the comprehensive impact assessment (CIA)—to assess the long-term effects of morbidity and mortality in health and economic terms. This framework takes full account of four time-related issues: cessation lag, policy/technical implementation timeframe, discounting and time horizon. We compare its results with those obtained from standard quantitative health impact assessment (QHIA) in an empirical illustration involving air pollution reduction in the canton of Geneva.
Results
We find that by neglecting time issues, the QHIA estimates greater health and economic benefits than the CIA. The overestimation is about 50% under reasonable assumptions and increases ceteris paribus with the magnitude of the cessation lag and the discount factor. It decreases both with the time horizon and with the implementation timeframe.
Conclusion
A proper evaluation of long-term health and economic effects is an important issue when they are to be used in cost-benefit analyses, particularly for mortality, which often represents the largest fraction. We recommend using the CIA to calculate more accurate values.
Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the integration of epidemiology and economics that is, economic epidemiology modelling (epi-econ), was relatively limited. The emergence of the Covid-19 crisis has prompted an unprecedented surge in this literature. This paper identifies and develops the main conceptual and modelling challenges involved in the expanding epi-econ stream, with a particular attention to the mathematical issues due, in particular, to the non-convex nature of epi-econ models. Recent extensions are also examined and a few future areas of research highlighted.
We propose a framework for the analysis of choice behaviour when the latter is made explicitly in chronological order. We relate this framework to the traditional choice theoretic setting from which the chronological aspect is absent, and compare it to other frameworks that extend this traditional setting. Then, we use this framework to analyse various models of preference discovery. We characterise, via simple revealed preference tests, several models that differ in terms of (1) the priors that the decision-maker holds about alternatives and (2) whether the decision-maker chooses period by period or uses her knowledge about future menus to inform her present choices. These results provide novel testable implications for the preference discovery process of myopic and forward-looking agents.
