We develop a simple model that endogenously determines both the level of trade and the probability of a trade disruption associated with international conflict. The model highlights the potential of a fundamental indeterminacy. Specifically, any pair of countries is likely to end up in one of two equilibria: i) a low level of trade coupled with a high likelihood of a trade disruption, and ii) a high level of trade coupled with a low likelihood of a trade disruption. A third equilibrium in-between these polar cases is possible but unstable. Based on this insight, we formulate an empirical prediction that may be examined relying on the gravity model of bilateral trade. Looking at changes in bilateral trade flows within the time span between 1966 and 2016, we find empirical support for the indeterminacy hypothesis.