Publications
What patterns of economic relations arise when people are altruistic rather than strategically self-interested? What are the welfare implications of altruistically-motivated choices of business partners? This paper introduces an altruism network into a simple model of choice among partners for economic activity. With concave utility, agents effectively become inequality averse towards their friends and family. Rich agents preferentially choose to work with poor friends despite productivity losses. These preferential contracts can also align with welfare since the poor benefit the most from income gains and these gains can outweigh the loss in output. Hence, network inequality—the divergence in incomes within sets of friends and family—is key to how altruism shapes economic activity, output, and welfare. When skill homophily —the tendency for friends to have the skills needed for high production—is high, preferential contracts and productivity losses disappear since rich agents have poor friends with the requisite qualifications.
We study how altruism networks affect the demand for formal insurance. Agents with CARA utilities are connected through a network of altruistic relationships. Incomes are subject to a common shock and to a large individual shock, generating heterogeneous damages. Agents can buy formal insurance to cover the common shock, up to a coverage cap. We find that ex-post altruistic transfers induce interdependence in ex-ante formal insurance decisions. We characterize the Nash equilibria of the insurance game and show that agents act as if they are trying to maximize the expected utility of a representative agent with average damages. Altruism thus tends to increase demand of low-damage agents and to decrease demand of high-damage agents. Its aggregate impact depends on the interplay between demand homogenization, the zero lower bound and the coverage cap. We find that aggregate demand is higher with altruism than without altruism at low prices and lower at high prices. Nash equilibria are constrained Pareto efficient.
The aim of this study (EPIDIAB) was to assess the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and the micro and macrovascular complications (MVC) of type 2 diabetes (T2D).
This paper assesses whether and how setting up a sovereign wealth fund has a buffer effect against currency crises. Using an innovative dynamic logit panel model framework and a unique dataset covering 34 emerging countries over the period 1989–2019, we empirically show that sovereign wealth funds reduce the occurrence of currency crises. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, alternative definitions of sovereign wealth funds, controlling for currency crisis risk factors, and income level sampling. Our findings have important implications for financial stability and for policymakers, who could further exploit the potential of sovereign wealth funds to better manage foreign exchange risks.
Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur's investment is positively correlated with her previous income.
The article explores Ricœur’s critical interpretation of Rawls’ theory of social justice. While Ricœur has a dialectical conception of justice (where the “good” encompasses the “just”), contrasting with Rawls’ procedural approach (where the just is defined independently of the good), Ricœur shows a strong interest in Rawls’ ideas. He situates Rawls’ project within one of the moments of the dialectic of the just: the moral moment. This dialectic arises from the aporetic nature of the just and manifests in ethical life as three paradoxes: political, legal, and socio-economic. While Rawls’ approach struggles with these paradoxes, they are the driving force of Ricœur’s approach to justice, highlighting its strength.
Traditional mid-term electricity forecasting models rely on calendar and meteorological information such as temperature and wind speed to achieve high performance. However depending on such variables has drawbacks, as they may not be informative enough during extreme weather. While ubiquitous, textual sources of information are hardly included in prediction algorithms for time series, despite the relevant information they may contain. In this work, we propose to leverage openly accessible weather reports for electricity demand and meteorological time series prediction problems. Our experiments on French and British load data show that the considered textual sources allow to improve overall accuracy of the reference model, particularly during extreme weather events such as storms or abnormal temperatures. Additionally, we apply our approach to the problem of imputation of missing values in meteorological time series, and we show that our text-based approach beats standard methods. Furthermore, the influence of words on the time series' predictions can be interpreted for the considered encoding schemes of the text, leading to a greater confidence in our results.
Objectives
We propose a general framework for estimating long-term health and economic effects that takes into account four time-related aspects. We apply it to a reduction in exposure to air pollution in the Canton of Geneva.
Study design
Methodological developments on the evaluation of long-term economic and health benefits, with an empirical illustration.
Methods
We propose a unified framework—the comprehensive impact assessment (CIA)—to assess the long-term effects of morbidity and mortality in health and economic terms. This framework takes full account of four time-related issues: cessation lag, policy/technical implementation timeframe, discounting and time horizon. We compare its results with those obtained from standard quantitative health impact assessment (QHIA) in an empirical illustration involving air pollution reduction in the canton of Geneva.
Results
We find that by neglecting time issues, the QHIA estimates greater health and economic benefits than the CIA. The overestimation is about 50% under reasonable assumptions and increases ceteris paribus with the magnitude of the cessation lag and the discount factor. It decreases both with the time horizon and with the implementation timeframe.
Conclusion
A proper evaluation of long-term health and economic effects is an important issue when they are to be used in cost-benefit analyses, particularly for mortality, which often represents the largest fraction. We recommend using the CIA to calculate more accurate values.
Episodes of low natural interest rates, even transitory, pose a challenge to monetary policy, by possibly causing the effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy rate to bind. Those episodes are more likely to occur not only when the natural rate is low on average but also when fluctuations around its average level are large. We study the responsiveness of the natural interest rate to structural aggregate shocks affecting the aggregate supply of and demand for savings. Using a quantitative overlapping-generations model, we trace back this responsiveness to the slopes of aggregate savings supply and demand curves and argue that both curves have likely flattened over the past four decades in the US This implies a greater sensitivity of the natural interest rate to structural shocks affecting the supply of and demand for aggregate savings — making it more likely, all else equal, that it fall into negative territory.
