Maison de l'économie et de la gestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc, CS80429
13097 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 2
- Membres
- Girardin
Girardin
Eric Girardin
Enseignant-Chercheur
,
Aix-Marseille Université
,
Faculté d'économie et de gestion (FEG)
Statut
Professeur des universités
Domaine(s) de recherche
Économétrie
Finance
Macroéconomie
Thèse
1988
,
University of Rennes 1
Contact
eric.girardin[at]univ-amu.fr
+33(0)4 13 55 25 52
Adresse
MEGA
Publications
No abstract is available for this item.
No abstract is available for this item.
This paper uses regime-switching techniques to examine the similarities of GDP growth-cycle features of 10 East Asian countries. A third regime of rapid growth is relevant for most countries. In Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, there was no secular slowdown in growth since the rapid-growth regime re-emerged at some stage. Japan is special since it shares each of its features with different countries, while China shares almost all its features with most countries. Finally, the same countries that were correlated with Japan in the 1980s have been linked with China since the 1990s. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Some studies indicate that correlations between GDP growth in Japan and in emerging East Asian countries are consistently positive; others claim that such correlations are consistently negative. In this analysis of 10 East Asian countries over 1975-2002 using quarterly GDP data, a Markov-switching vector autoregressive system with three growth cycle regimes is used to examine to what extent such correlations are sensitive to third-country effects, transmission mechanisms, and the quality of Japanese output data. After controlling for third-country effects, correlations with Japan are found to be almost uniformly negative. When transmission variables are taken into account, however, positive correlations appear during rapid-growth regimes for China, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. When higher-quality Japanese output data are used, shocks in these countries are symmetric with Japan's disturbances in growth-recession and rapid-growth regimes. However, synchronization with Japan is never present in the normal-growth regime. Because these five countries are not fully synchronized with Japan, it is probably premature for them to engage in exchange rate arrangements involving the yen. Copyright (c) 2005 Center for International Development and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the 'Casino' character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of 'luck' does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.
Potential new entrants to the European Union from Central and Eastern European countries face many challenges to achieve financial convergence with the existing EU nations. Using detailed case studies from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and analysis of cross country data from these regions, Financial and Monetary Integration in the New Europe looks at the key issues for applicant countries as they negotiate the terms of their membership in the European Union. Of major concern to these countries is the financial sector and its implications for economic growth and the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The book examines, in particular, monetary and exchange rate policies, banking regulation and financial market efficiency. The overall impact of building a market driven financial system on economic development is also explored.
No abstract is available for this item.
At the initiative of the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII), the Bank of France’s Foundation for Research, and the Institut d’Economie publique of the University of Aix-Marseille (IDEP), a new forum to discuss economic policy was established. The first meeting of this forum was held at the Bank of France in April 2002. Its objective is to create a new platform of discussion in Paris, on monetary and financial affairs among university researchers, managers of financial enterprises and officials from monetary and financial institutions.
[fre] La dépréciation de l'euro par rapport au dollar au cours de ses deux premières années d'existence est souvent présentée comme une nouvelle preuve de l'incapacité des fondamentaux à expliquer les mouvements de change. Par contraste, le présent article fournit des éléments économétriques sur données quotidiennes indiquant que, dans un cadre à prix visqueux, les fondamentaux monétaires ont joué un rôle dans cette dépréciation. Une forte expansion monétaire associée à la convergence des taux d'intérêt européens en 1998 et à une politique monétaire accommodante de la BCE en 1999 aurait ainsi une responsabilité substantielle dans l'affaiblissement de l'euro. [eng] The weakness of the euro: a monetary explanation The depreciation of the euro vis a vis the dollar over its first two years is often viewed as a new proof that fundamentals-based models are unable to explain exchange rate movements. By contrast the present paper offers some econometric evidence with daily data showing that, within a sticky price framework, monetary fundamentals may have played a role in this depreciation. A fast monetary expansion associated with continental European interest rate convergence in 1998 and an accommodative ECB monetary stance in 1999 would thus bear some responsibility in the weakening of the euro.
This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970-1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance.
