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UID:event-13082@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260414T233822Z
CREATED:20260414T233822Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260414T233822Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:phd seminar - Guillaume Schwegler*\, Marco Matani**
DTSTART:20260317T100000Z
DTEND:20260317T113000Z
DESCRIPTION:*We study how non-fundamental surges in perceived sovereign def
 ault risk propagate to the real economy when banks hold long-term public de
 bt. In the model\, higher default risk raises sovereign spreads\, tighten i
 ntermediary constraints\, and depress investment and output. Because defaul
 t risk is partly endogenous to debt dynamics\, the initial exogenous downtu
 rn raises the debt-to-GDP ratio and amplifies sovereign risk\, producing a 
 sovereign–bank loop. Estimating the model on Italian data\, we find that 
 these shocks quantitatively dominate welfare losses. Fiscal policy determin
 es the strength of amplification: rules that stabilize debt using broad\, r
 elatively inelastic tax bases (especially consumption taxation) deliver the
  largest welfare gains\, whereas deficit targeting implemented through capi
 tal taxation can be destabilizing and extremely costly.**Based on a suffici
 ent statistics approach\, we show how the state of technology of European i
 ndustries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in 
 a way that is simple in terms of computation\, parsimonious in terms of dat
 a requirements\, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack 
 of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and 
 technological advantage suggests that standard measures of revealed compara
 tive advantage only imperfectly capture a country’s technological prowess
  due to the concurrent influences of factor prices\, market size\, markups\
 , firm selection and market share reallocation. These findings offer policy
  insights relevant to the EU’s external competitiveness debate\, echoing 
 several recommendations from the Draghi report. Achieving export specializa
 tion in key sectors requires more than just technological superiority\, and
  this holds even more true for destinations outside the single market.\\n\\
 nContact: Xavier Chatron-Colliet : xavier.chatron-colliet[at]univ-amu.frArm
 and Rigotti : armand.rigotti[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: https:/
 /amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/guillaume-schwegler-marco-matani
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Amphithéâtre\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevar
 d Maurice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/guillaume-schwegler-marco-matani
CONTACT:Xavier Chatron-Colliet : xavier.chatron-colliet[at]univ-amu.frArman
 d Rigotti : armand.rigotti[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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