BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//AMSE//Event Calendar//FR
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:event-12526@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260414T105839Z
CREATED:20260414T105839Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260414T105839Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:phd seminar - Edem Egnikpo*\, Valentin Burban**
DTSTART:20260127T100000Z
DTEND:20260127T113000Z
DESCRIPTION:*There is consistent evidence that natural disasters generate g
 reater and more persistent output losses in developing countries than in ad
 vanced economies. This paper shows that a key driver of this asymmetry is t
 he size of the informal sector\, which is typically larger in developing co
 untries. Using a smooth-transition local projection method on a panel of 14
 9 countries\, I find that highly informal economies experience deeper and l
 onger-lived growth contractions following storm shocks\, whereas less infor
 mal economies are more resilient and recover faster. These results are robu
 st to alternative specifications\, different informality measures\, and a b
 road set of country characteristics. Ongoing work develops a two-sector DSG
 E framework to explore the mechanisms through which informality may amplify
  disaster shocks.**This paper examines whether international spillovers fro
 m Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy sho
 cks transmit differently to euro area neighboring sovereign bond markets. U
 sing a dynamic term structure model that accounts for non-linearities aroun
 d the effective lower bound\, I decompose sovereign yields into expectation
 s and term premia for eight spillover-recipient economies and recover shado
 w short rates for policy-constrained periods. These estimates are combined 
 with high-frequency monetary policy surprises from the Fed and the ECB to i
 dentify distinct spillover channels—aggregate demand\, exchange rate\, an
 d risk-taking. I find that spillovers vary systematically across maturities
  and shock types. In particular\, Fed and ECB shocks may propagate through 
 different channels\, and transmission is asymmetric between tightening and 
 easing episodes. The results highlight the heterogeneous exposure of small 
 open economies to global monetary policy and have important implications fo
 r the international transmission of unconventional and conventional policy 
 actions.\\n\\nContact: Xavier Chatron-Colliet : xavier.chatron-colliet[at]u
 niv-amu.frArmand Rigotti : armand.rigotti[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informa
 tions: https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/edem-egnikpo-valentin-bur
 ban
LOCATION:MEGA - Salle Carine Nourry\, 424\, Chemin du Viaduc\, 13080 Aix-en
 -Provence
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/edem-egnikpo-valentin-burban
CONTACT:Xavier Chatron-Colliet : xavier.chatron-colliet[at]univ-amu.frArman
 d Rigotti :&nbsp\;armand.rigotti[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR