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VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//AMSE//Event Calendar//FR
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UID:event-10111@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260430T153245Z
CREATED:20260430T153245Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260430T153245Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:big data and econometrics seminar - Joseph J. Ruggiero
DTSTART:20230530T120000Z
DTEND:20230530T133000Z
DESCRIPTION:Why do some conflicts escalate to global war while others stay 
 contained? I provide a formal model of conflict that considers an internati
 onal system of many countries located on an economic network. Countries may
  attack an adversary of their choosing and\, if a war breaks out\, the rema
 ining countries choose whether to join the fight. I demonstrate how the dis
 tribution of power and globalization can interact to affect the expected si
 ze of conflicts in a number of ways\, motivating quantitative analysis. Con
 necting the theoretical model to data on international disputes\, I estimat
 e deep structural parameters governing country preferences\, including the 
 underlying economic network. Lastly\, I perform counterfactual analysis on 
 World War I combatants facing a decision to join the war between Austria-Hu
 ngary and Serbia\, finding that changing power and economic relations of th
 e 20th century make the Allies more likely to fight but the Central Powers 
 less likely.\\n\\nContact: Michel Lubrano : michel.lubrano[at]univ-amu.frPi
 erre Michel : pierre.michel[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: https:/
 /amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/joseph-j-ruggiero
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 17\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/joseph-j-ruggiero
CONTACT:Michel Lubrano : michel.lubrano[at]univ-amu.frPierre Michel :&nbsp\
 ;pierre.michel[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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