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UID:event-9632@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260430T142631Z
CREATED:20260430T142631Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260430T142631Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:Macro and labor market seminar - Gernot Müller
DTSTART:20230504T100000Z
DTEND:20230504T110000Z
DESCRIPTION:Recent events underscore the need to better understand the macr
 oeconomic consequences of war\, not only for the countries directly involve
 d in military conflict but also its international spillovers. This paper st
 udies the economic consequences of 76 interstate wars since 1870. We show t
 hat wars constitute large negative supply shocks for war-site economies: ma
 jor wars raise inflation levels by some 15-20 percentage points for several
  years and lower economic activity by more than 30 percent relative to tren
 d. The spillovers to third countries that are not party to the war but geog
 raphically close are also substantial and operate through trade gravity cha
 nnels. Major wars raise inflation in neighboring countries by almost 10 per
 centage points and depress economic activity more than 10 percent relative 
 to trend. We calibrate an international business cycle model to capture key
  features of the data and study how monetary policy responses affect the sp
 illovers of war.\\n\\nContact: Andreas Dibiasi: andreas.dibiasi[at]univ-amu
 .frCéline Poilly: celine.poilly[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: htt
 ps://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/gernot-m%C3%BCller-0
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 24\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/gernot-m%C3%BCller-0
CONTACT:Andreas Dibiasi: andreas.dibiasi[at]univ-amu.frCéline Poilly: celi
 ne.poilly[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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