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VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//AMSE//Event Calendar//FR
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:event-9407@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260430T125619Z
CREATED:20260430T125619Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260430T125619Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:Macro and labor market seminar - Marcel Peruffo
DTSTART:20230413T103000Z
DTEND:20230413T113000Z
DESCRIPTION:We develop a heterogeneous agent\, overlapping generations mode
 l with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the de
 cline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) suggested in the literature: d
 emographic change\, a slowdown in productivity growth\, a rise in income in
 equality\, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage po
 int (pp) decline in r∗ between 1975 and 2015\, which is within the range 
 of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0
 .70 pp)\, and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown 
 in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing publ
 ic debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequ
 ality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income ri
 sk\, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings
  behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict t
 hat r∗ will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030\, after which a slow reversal wi
 ll begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run\, a low lev
 el when compared with the postwar path of r∗ implied by the model. This r
 emains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to 
 the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of 
 r∗ through the tax and transfer system.\\n\\nContact: Andreas Dibiasi: an
 dreas.dibiasi[at]univ-amu.frCéline Poilly: celine.poilly[at]univ-amu.fr\n\
 nPlus d'informations: https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/marcel-peruffo
 -0
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 17\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/marcel-peruffo-0
CONTACT:Andreas Dibiasi: andreas.dibiasi[at]univ-amu.frCéline Poilly: celi
 ne.poilly[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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