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PRODID:-//AMSE//Event Calendar//FR
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UID:event-13192@amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260920T124139Z
CREATED:20260920T124139Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260920T124139Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:Public economics seminar - Bin Miao
DTSTART:20261002T100000Z
DTEND:20261002T110000Z
DESCRIPTION:We study whether conjunction fallacies vary systematically with
  whether their constituent events are congruent in desirability. In an expe
 riment conducted two days before the 2024 U.S. presidential election\, part
 icipants evaluate lotteries contingent on electoral outcomes\, economic out
 comes\, and their conjunctions\, and report likelihood judgments for the sa
 me events. Political identity makes the desirability of electoral outcomes 
 participant-specific\, so that the same political-economic conjunction can 
 be congruent for one participant and incongruent for another. We find conju
 nction fallacies in both beliefs and choices\, and they are more pronounced
  when the constituent outcomes are either both favorable or both unfavorabl
 e. This pattern is robust to constituent order and disappears when the econ
 omic dimension has no natural desirability ordering. On the choice side\, a
  conjunction fallacy violates statewise dominance. We develop an event-vale
 nce framework in which willingness to bet combines a component that is mono
 tone in event inclusion with additive signed valence across states. We deri
 ve necessary and sufficient ordinal tests for the model and find that its p
 redicted valence restrictions fit the data better than their sign-reversed 
 counterparts.\\n\\nContact: Arthur Guillouzouic - arthur.guillouzouic-le-co
 rff[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/
 events/bin-miao
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 15\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/bin-miao
CONTACT:Arthur Guillouzouic - arthur.guillouzouic-le-corff[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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